Predicting the Future
Day 140 of Writing
I set my novel around 10 years into the future. A lot can change in a decade, but it is an entirely different world far into the future. If your setting is 200 years from now, the science will be so advanced that it needs to have less grounding in what is possible now. Our smart phones would seem like magic just a 100 years ago, let alone trying to explain quantum mechanics to someone from that time. If your book seems to have missed the mark accurately creating a distant future, odds are that your book will be forgotten by then. If it is still remembered, it will be for the great storytelling and not your Nostradamus-like ability to predict the future.
In just ten years, though, many things will be the same and some things will have changed. Guessing incorrectly which is which can go badly awry. There are also unexpected developments that can change the entire landscape.
If I had written this book in 2010, and set it in 2020, things have changed so much that I would have completely missed the mark no matter what I did. Who could have predicted an uprising against racism in the midst of the worst pandemic in a 100 years? Who could have predicted that the United States would have a president who completely rejects science as do many of his followers? Who could have predicted that so many would refuse to do even the simplest things used 100 years ago in the last major pandemic to hit us, such as wearing masks and social distancing to prevent spreading? Who could have predicted that of all the countries in the world, the United States would have the absolutely worst response to the pandemic, leading to the worst and most uncontrolled outbreak in the world? Who could have predicted that as the pandemic explodes out of control, the federal government would just give up? This is the astonishing place that we now live in.
My story is set in the early 2030s, but I never set a specific year. That gives me a little wiggle room. I try to extrapolate what the effects of global climate change will have, and so far this has expressed itself in the story in a slightly transformed San Francisco. The political landscape in my future has changed very little, although it is slightly more corrupt, which is to say, extremely corrupt. That turns out to be an important part of the book. Also, of course, there are tons of spy gadgets and tech, all within the realm of the probable.
It is even more difficult to create a proper future setting in a movie or television series. The 1982 film Blade Runner set the mark for envisioning a visually lush future, albeit a much more distant one. You have to be able to visually depict all of the technology in the background even when it is not part of the story. In most productions, the near distant future settings look almost the same as when they were made. Similar clothing, cars, even buildings. That is much cheaper but so creatively void.
A newer series on Amazon does an incredible job with the tech. It is brilliantly visually realized, with many clever extrapolations on today’s technology. It is a comedy titled Upload. Besides being funny, it tells a larger story abut economic inequality and touches on other modern issues as well. It is perhaps the best I have seen at realizing a near future world on a television series. It was created by Greg Daniels, whose background includes writing for The Simpsons, co-creating King of the Hill, and working on The Office and Parks and Recreation. I am very happy it has been renewed for a second season.
Another newer science fiction comedy on Netflix that I really enjoyed comes from the same person as Upload. Greg Daniels co-created it with Steve Carrell. Much to my bafflement, it did not get great reviews. I think it just went over a lot of people’s heads, but besides getting a few digs at an unnamed idiot president, it also seems to get the military and the bureaucracy of the industrial-military complex.
What’s Up with Us
I have been unable to write for several weeks since my left arm has been out of commission. Many great novels were written with just a quill pen and one hand, but I have yet to master the art of of one-handed typing.
In my last entry I wrote about getting a mosquito bite that got infected. The swelling went down, but the pain got worse. A lot worse. I had to put my arm in a sling. I had another phone consult with a doctor. He suggested that I go to the hospital emergency room. They wanted to aspirate my elbow, a procedure that could not be done at Urgent Care. Belle asked if there was a better time of day to go and the doctor said that we should go right now. Immediately. He was rather insistent on that.
A hospital was not somewhere I was inclined to go, but we went. Belle could not come in with me and had to wait outside the hospital in the heat. I was in the ED for 6 hours lying on a gurney. I had no idea what was going on. They were pumping me full of fluids. I heard a woman’s voice just outside a nearby room. “Hello, my name is Debbie and I am here to do your hospital intake.” I thought that I really did not want to meet Debbie. About an hour later, though, I did.
During the entire time I was in the hospital I really had no idea what was wrong with me. The final diagnosis was severe sepsis with acute organ dysfunction. That is not any better than it sounds. I also had a skin rash. Apparently, some bacteria from the mosquito got under my skin and really took off.
The ordeal was unpleasant but the doctors and nursing staff at Kaiser were excellent. I even had a private room. The nurses were amazing and they are all such heroes. Belle has been learning a lot about nurses through her job at Cedars Sinai, and it has only increased her admiration for them. Thankfully, I did not have to go into a hospital during a surge. They had enough beds.
Under normal circumstances Belle would have been with me. She would find out what was going on and get back to me, and be my advocate. Instead, I felt quite cut-off. I can’t imagine how awful it would be to be hospitalized with Covid and cut-off from loved ones. What I went through was nothing compared to that, but still bad enough. Yes, my situation was life threatening, but I did not know it while I was in the hospital, so I was never particularly concerned. Also, I was on a lot of drugs, so a bit out of it.
I have been out of the hospital for over a week now. I am still tired and depleted. Today has really been the first day when the pain was down enough that I could write. Not being able to write was the worst part of it for me. [Addendum: normally I write these entries in an hour or two. I have had problems with focus, exhaustion, and pain, so it took me five days to finish it. I hope my writing speed increases soon. At that rate of 320 words a day, It will take me a long time to finish the book. I normally average around 2,000 words a day.]
Going into the hospital was stressful, but few things can compare to the horror of three weeks ago when I came upon the skeletinized remains of my herb garden. Caterpillars left nothing but the ribs on many of the leaves. My lemon balm was decimated, and my mints and basils were badly damaged. We used a biological treatment and that is helping them all come back. We are also using a biological treatment to try and wipe out the mosquitoes.
My tomatoes continue to produce. I had been worried about squirrels getting to them. They usually cavort in the trees just outside my bedroom window. Oddly, I have not seen a single squirrel in months. There have also been reports of dead squirrels in people’s backyards near us. That does not seem good, although it has been good for my tomatoes as they have so far been left alone.
We used some tomatoes yesterday to make raita, which we stuffed in a pita along with leftover Smoked Rib Eye from the day before. We cut it up and sauteed it with some onions. It was delicious.
I continue to learn new things about food science. I usually lightly salted meat shortly before throwing it on the fire. That was incorrect. This time I did what I had read about but was skeptical of- using a larger amount of kosher salt many hours before cooking. I am generally not a fan of wet brining as it tends to makes the meat too mushy for my taste. Salting and fridging for a few hours acts as a dry brine. I put the kosher salt on about six hours ahead of cooking. Despite being large crystals, it completely disappeared into the Rib Eye. What I got out of the smoker was one of the best steaks I have ever eaten. It was tender and filled with flavor without being salty at all. The salt did its science magic.
Right before I went into the hospital we had everything we needed to finish the waterfall. It remains unfinished, waiting for me to get well enough. The pieces sit there in the sun mocking me.